{
 "question": "Can a player teach a per-player twin from ~20 answers, in seconds, on frozen Layatown v1?",
 "setup": {
  "bank": {
   "situations": 60,
   "diagnostic": 22,
   "source": "training/data/test_production villager_decision (held-out production day), stratified"
  },
  "village_set": {
   "situations": 300,
   "source": "uniform sample of the same day, disjoint from the bank"
  },
  "actions": [
   "eat",
   "fight",
   "flee",
   "help others",
   "idle",
   "pray",
   "sleep",
   "socialize",
   "steal",
   "trade",
   "work"
  ],
  "personas": [
   "honest_cautious",
   "greedy_bold",
   "altruist",
   "lazy",
   "pious",
   "merchant_social"
  ],
  "design_personas_for_diagnostic_flag": [
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   "greedy_bold",
   "altruist",
   "lazy",
   "pious"
  ],
  "noise_levels": [
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   0.2,
   0.3
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  "n_train": [
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   20,
   40
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  "n_test": 20,
  "splits": 10,
  "ci": "95% percentile bootstrap over runs (persona x split [x noise]), 10,000 resamples; per persona: t over 10 splits",
  "lambda_grid": [
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   0.03,
   0.1,
   0.3,
   1.0,
   3.0,
   10.0
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   "bias": 0.03,
   "context": 0.1,
   "scorer32": 0.1,
   "scorer1k": 0.3,
   "traits": null,
   "traits+bias": 0.03,
   "scratch": 0.1
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  "lambda_dev_scores": {
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 ],
 "timing": {
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  "params": {
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   "scorer32": 44,
   "scorer1k": 1036,
   "traits": 0,
   "traits+bias": 12,
   "scratch": 154
  }
 },
 "verdict": {
  "written_by_hand_after_the_run": true,
  "best_mechanism": "context (frozen logits x beta + per-action bias + action x 13 situation features, ~155 params, L-BFGS on CPU, ~13 ms)",
  "headline_n20_random_all_noise": {
   "context": 12.27,
   "scratch_no_layatown": 12.08,
   "bias": 10.44,
   "majority": 7.99,
   "frozen": 5.45,
   "ceiling": 16.59,
   "unit": "agreements out of 20 held-out answers"
  },
  "lines": [
   "Yes, a twin taught from 20 answers agrees with its player on 12.3 of 20 held-out answers [11.9, 12.7], against 8.0 for the player's majority answer and 5.5 for untouched Layatown; the noise ceiling is 16.6.",
   "But Layatown adds nothing: a ~154-parameter logistic model with no Layatown at all ('scratch') scores 12.1, within noise of the best adapter; adapters on the model's own representations (scorer32 7.1, scorer1k 9.3) and trait fitting (6.4) are worse than the majority baseline or barely above it.",
   "10 answers already beat the majority baseline (10.3 vs 7.6); 20 is the sensible minimum for a claim; 40 reaches 13.6 of 20, still 3 below the ceiling.",
   "The result is optimistic: personas are rules over the same situation fields the context adapter reads; real players are less consistent and may use cues (relationships, memories, job) outside those features.",
   "Frozen Layatown cannot express most personalities by itself: with any of the 105 trait pairs it matches a greedy, pious or altruist player on about 3-4 of 20; the action menu also blocks some wishes (no eat when full, no fight/flee without danger, food never scarce on the test day)."
  ],
  "recommended_flow": "Ask 20 questions from a fixed stratified bank (every situation feature appears at least twice: calm day at several times, night, hungry, tired, exhausted, danger here/nearby/far, hurt, friend in danger), not diagnostic-first; fit the context adapter (13 ms CPU); show 'your twin decides like you N of 20' only as a held-out score (leave-one-out over the 20, or 5 extra check questions), never the training fit."
 }
}